US Election: How Trump Will Defy The Odds (Again) And Become The Next POTUS

Nov 6th, 2016 Betting Tips, Previews

Trump vs Clinton US Election 2016

The 2016 US Election will surely go down in as one of the most heated political exchanges in American history. As the race for the White House enters its closing stages, the smart money still appears to be siding with a Clinton victory. But in an age of constantly shifting expectations, conventional wisdom has never looked so wrong.

Rocked by scandal on both sides in what has been an undoubtedly tumultuous election campaign, the race has never looked tighter than in these closing stages. For much of the electorate, a Trump win is unthinkable. Yet with the lack of enthusiasm around Hillary Clinton, and national polls showing an undeniable momentum for the Trump campaign, could we be in line for another major political upset?

Constantly Underrated

At the start, some people thought it was a joke. When former Apprentice-host Donald J. Trump announced he was running for President, he joined a bumper field of Republicans all vying for the party nomination. The outsider throughout the primaries, few could have predicted his headline-grabbing antics would pay off. Never the betting favourite to win the day, Trump ploughed his way through a strong field, dismissing his opponents one by one until he revealed himself to be the last man standing.Donald Trump - US Election Republican Candidate

Throughout this process, analysts, journalists and political commentators were virtually unanimous in their reckoning: Trump simply can’t go the distance, and has no hope of becoming the GOP nominee. In fact, even after winning in the primaries, there was still widespread incredulity, with many instead preferring Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, or some other candidate as the ultimate nominee.

Like him or loathe him, it is impossible to argue that Trump hasn’t defied expectations. He could now be just days away from defying his critics, and silencing the establishment mood that he was unfit and therefore unable to become the next Commander in Chief.

Underrated political causes have a demonstrable history of rewriting the rules. You only have to look at Brexit to see this phenomenon in action. The political establishment, the media, the commentariat all denounced the arguments for leaving the European Union, almost to the point of ridicule. But this was completely disconnected from the reality of the electorate, who in the UK at least have been more to the political right of their parliament for at least 20 years.

The same is true in the US. For all the left make good cause on social media and in the liberal press, their message just doesn’t resonate with the electorate as much as it should. Writing off the populist perspective is a dangerous game for the political establishment, and they have already had a bloody nose across the pond. The mood music in the US is strangely similar, but the momentum and polls tell a completely different story.

The Hillary Factor

Hillary Clinton - Democratic CandidateWhen you factor in Trump’s opponent, the case for the Democrats winning the White House becomes considerably weaker. In any other election, Trump’s Presidency would be a non-starter. In fact, it is often said that Donald Trump would be losing by a much heavier margin against any other candidate. But Hillary comes with unwelcome baggage and a tarred reputation, and this could well be her undoing on election day.

Hillary Clinton represents a dated political worldview. She is reminiscent of the Clinton, Blair and Bush eras, which for many voters today have taken on a deeper shade on unpopularity than opinion polls of the time would have suggested. Again there are parallels with the UK here – whereas Tony Blair went on to win a historic third term in office after the Iraq War, he is now one of the country’s most unpopular politicians, barely given an audience by the average voter. This change in perception clamps down on Hillary too. There’s obviously the Bill stuff, the emails, the Clinton Foundation, and countless other problems that have dogged her campaign. But in this race, her surname could well be one of her biggest hindrances.

Large swathes of the electorate are genuinely fed up with Washington, and what they see as an ineffective, inefficient bureaucratic government, for right or wrong. Clinton is seen as one of the main players in that political establishment, which has for decades failed to resonate with many segments of the voting population.


So this leaves the election in a strange position – for many Donald Trump is a far from perfect candidate. But they look to Hillary as the alternative, and see someone who has been at the heart of the establishment many people feel has failed them time and time again. Add into the mix the numerous controversies surrounding Hillary Clinton’s career and life, and you’ve got the recipe for political upset.

Again, casting back to the Brexit vote, the arrogance of the political establishment cost them the vote. Instead of publicly acknowledging how close the race actually was, the Remain campaign (read: Clinton) thought they had the campaign in the bag – they pretty much said it, time and time again. The natural Remain voters were far from passionate about the choice, and it was seen as voting for a formality, rather than voting for anything positive or anything desirable.

Applied to the US Election, the same can be seen. Everybody knows Hillary will be President, and nobody is passionate about her campaign. This is a recipe for poor Democrat turnout, and to a greater or lesser extent, this will be felt at the polls on the day.

Contrast with Donald Trump. Swathes of people who haven’t voted for decades are signing up as dyed in the wool Trump supporters, converted by the rhetoric of a man who speaks to them, and speaks their language. The Donald will make America great again, like the decades they knew before globalisation and a liberal establishment agenda took hold.

Fans of Trump 2016

The result is legions of supporters who would cross hot coals to vote for Trump on November 8th. Similarly to the Leave side of the Brexit vote, the passion and momentum is with the change candidate, and it will take more than just smug dismissal to derail that threat.

Trump’s Path To Victory

But while all the signs are now pointing to Trump momentum, surely Hillary and the Democrats can find comfort in the Electoral Colleges? After all, Clinton is coming at this with a firewall of support, and has a demonstrably easier path to victory than Trump.

Even this can now no longer be taken for granted. Some pollsters are now predicting states such as Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada are on a knife-edge. With current polling, these could all go to Trump. If that remains the case by November 8th, Trump will be in the White House.

The bulk of political commentators are still making the same mistake as the British political establishment, a willful ignorance they maintained until the polls were closed and the first results came in. They still view Hillary’s in-built advantage as being worth more than it is. She has spent more, has a natural electoral bias in her favour, has demographics on her side, and the support of the entire political and media establishment – yet still, Hillary is barely scraping a poll lead beyond the margin for error.

US Election 2016

And that’s without mention of the shy Trump vote. It has been demonstrated time and time again that candidates and causes vociferously vilified by the left attract secret support from the right, from the type of people who quietly hold their own opinions, and rise above the petty squabbles of the righteous. And it isn’t a minor effect – these are the kinds of opinions that can and do sway elections. The Scottish independence referendum in 2014 was a prime example of the majority holding their opinions sensibly, while a vocal, vociferous minority convinced the media they were on the path to victory.

The momentum is with Donald J. Trump coming into these last few days. If the campaign so far is anything to go by, there’s still plenty of time for external events to influence the outcome. Another FBI release, another allegation against Trump. But only a fool could safely pronounce a done-deal, in the bag win for Clinton at this stage, where she looks far from comfortable as the Democrat nominee, let alone the next President of the United States of America.

Hillary may still win. But the bookies and conventional wisdom is making the same mistake they have made about Trump every step of the way. By underrating his chances, and arrogantly assuming to know the mind of the electorate before it has spoken, they are setting themselves up for one of the most monumental political falls in history.

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